GLP News

EVENT RECAP: Participatory modelling, scenario building and forecasting techniques in land system science

Related GLP Member: Enrico Celio, Joerg Priess, Albrecht Ehrensperger, Isabelle Providoli

The GLP working group Co-production of Sustainable Land Systems held its third webinar, on participatory modelling, scenario building and forecasting techniques in land system science, in November 2018.

As illustrated in webinars #1 and #2, co-production is key in defining current research priorities and shaping decision making based on past trends and available system knowledge. Co-production is maybe even more important when trying to grasp future developments or defining desirable development trajectories.

Modelling, scenario building and forecasting are typical tools for exploring what lies ahead in time. Even though they look like tools for researchers only, such tools also bear great potential for supporting, guiding and enhancing participatory processes at various scales. Thus, they featured prominently in our third webinar, during which three presenters illustrated these co-production approaches using concrete examples based on their experience.

Joerg Priess (UFZ, Leipzig, Germany) focused on collaborative research using participatory scenario development at different scales. His presentation highlighted three examples in different settings and scales, and with different forms and levels of co-production / stakeholder involvement. He presented examples from Northern Mongolia, Central Germany, and Europe.

Enrico Celio (ETH Zürich, Switzerland and EcoAgriculture Partners, Washington DC) explored the potential of participatory modelling and the use of Bayesian Networks (BN), which he illustrated with the Bayesian network-based Land-use decision Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) and with concrete implementation examples in Switzerland and Madagascar.

Jürgen Reinhard (Quantis, Zurich, Switzerland) presented an example on participatory scenario modelling for the generation and assessment of potential biomass energy strategies in East Africa. His presentation highlighted the formative scenario method and its value for the participatory co-development of future scenarios. He presented examples from Kitui (Kenya) and Moshi (Tanzania).

Please view the full webinar (you can also make it full screen):

Please take the webinar survey after watching the entire video at:

Opening and closing slides, Isabelle Providoli (PDF, 4.9 MB)
Introduction, Albrecht Ehrensperger (PDF, 4.9 MB)
Participatory scenario development at different scales, Joerg Priess (PDF, 1.1 MB)
Participatory Bayesian network-based land-use decision modeling approach, Enrico Celio (5.3 MB)
Prospects of biomass energy in East Africa: The formative scenario method and its value for the participatory co-development of future scenarios, Juergen Reinhard (PDF, 7.8 MB)

Missed the first two co-production webinars?
First GLP co-production webinar recording and materials
Second GLP co-production webinar recording and materials

Become a Member
We encourage you to become a member of GLP for free and join the co-production working group to help shape future offerings.

Please direct any questions about the webinar or working group to Isabelle Providoli.